Alternate history allows us to explore how pivotal events could have dramatically reshaped the world. One of the most consequential “what if” scenarios of the 20th century involves the Russian Civil War (1917–1923). What if the White Army — a loose coalition of monarchists, republicans, liberals, and anti-Bolshevik socialists — had triumphed over the Red Bolsheviks? How would Russia, Europe, and the world have changed?
The Immediate Aftermath: A Fragmented Victory
The first challenge after a White victory would be political coherence. The White movement was deeply divided ideologically. While united in their opposition to Bolshevism, their visions for Russia’s future varied widely. Some, like General Anton Denikin, leaned toward restoring some form of centralized Russian state, possibly even a constitutional monarchy. Others, like Admiral Alexander Kolchak, favored authoritarian rule, while still others preferred a liberal democratic republic.
It is unlikely that Russia would have emerged as a stable, unified state immediately. More plausibly, the country might have fractured into semi-autonomous regions controlled by different military leaders or regional governments. The restoration of the Romanov monarchy was a possibility, but given the deep unpopularity of the monarchy after World War I, it would likely have been symbolic at best or even rejected outright in favor of a military-led authoritarian regime.
No Soviet Union, No Communist Bloc
One of the most significant consequences of a White victory would be the absence of the Soviet Union. Communism, as an international revolutionary movement, drew immense strength and legitimacy from the existence of the USSR. Without Bolshevik Russia as a model, funding source, and ideological center, communist parties around the world would have been weaker and more marginalized.
Movements such as the Chinese Communist Party might never have gained the traction they did without Soviet support. Mao Zedong’s revolution in China could have faltered, potentially leaving China under continued rule of the Kuomintang or splitting into warlord states. Similarly, communist influence in Europe during the interwar period would have been drastically curtailed. The specter of global communist revolution would not loom as it did in our timeline.
The Fate of Eastern Europe
Without a Soviet Union pushing aggressively into Eastern Europe, the balance of power would have shifted westward. Poland, which had fought fiercely against the Bolsheviks during the Polish-Soviet War (1919–1921), might have emerged stronger, possibly expanding its territory further east. The Baltic states — Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania — might have solidified their independence sooner and with less conflict.
Germany’s political trajectory might also have been altered. One of the key drivers of German radicalization in the 1920s and 1930s was the fear of Bolshevism. Without a communist Soviet threat on the eastern front, nationalist and fascist movements in Germany might have been weaker, or at least had different priorities. While Nazism might still have risen due to economic hardship and the Treaty of Versailles, its anti-communist rhetoric would have lost much of its potency.
Russia and the West: Possible Allies?
With Bolshevism crushed, the White government — regardless of its exact form — would likely have sought rapprochement with Western powers. Britain, France, and the United States had all supported the Whites during parts of the civil war, albeit inconsistently. In the aftermath of victory, these powers might have pressed for democratic reforms in exchange for economic assistance.
Alternatively, if the White leadership leaned toward authoritarianism or militarism, Western powers might have been more hesitant to embrace Russia as a full ally. However, with no ideological confrontation like the Cold War, the relationship between Russia and the West would have been pragmatic, driven by trade, regional stability, and shared opposition to German revanchism.
The Second World War — Would It Still Happen?
One of the most intriguing questions is whether World War II would still have erupted in this alternate timeline. Without the Soviet Union, Hitler’s ideological crusade against communism would lack its primary target. His drive for Lebensraum (living space) in the east might still have existed, but facing a fractured or authoritarian Russian state — one possibly aligned with Britain or France — would have complicated his strategic calculations.
Alternatively, a powerful and authoritarian White Russian state might have been a competitor to Germany’s ambitions, possibly leading to a Russo-German conflict of a different kind. The dynamics of the 1930s might have seen a European alliance structure quite unlike the Allied-Axis split of our history. Perhaps Britain, France, and Russia could have formed a loose entente aimed at containing Germany.
No Cold War, Different Nuclear Age
Without a Soviet Union, there would have been no Cold War as we know it. The ideological division of the world between capitalist West and communist East would not have materialized. The nuclear arms race, too, might have taken a different form. The United States would likely still have developed nuclear weapons during World War II, but without a USSR to compete against, the post-war nuclear landscape would have been shaped by different rivalries — perhaps between the U.S. and an authoritarian Russia, or between Western Europe and rising Asian powers.
Internal Russian Development: Liberalism or Reaction?
One of the biggest unknowns is Russia’s internal development. Would it have moved toward democracy, or fallen into authoritarianism? Given the conservative and militarist tendencies of much of the White leadership, the early years likely would have been marked by repression of leftist movements, continued violence against ethnic minorities (including pogroms against Jews), and political instability.
However, over the longer term, there is a possibility that liberal and republican factions within the White coalition could have gained influence, especially with Western encouragement. If that occurred, Russia might have evolved into a semi-democratic constitutional state, albeit one carrying the scars of civil war, imperial collapse, and authoritarian interludes.
Conclusion: A World Without the Soviet Union
A White victory in the Russian Civil War would have profoundly changed the 20th century. The absence of the Soviet Union would have weakened communist movements globally, potentially preventing or altering revolutions in China, Vietnam, Cuba, and elsewhere. The ideological Cold War between East and West would never have happened, or would have taken on an entirely different character.
Yet this alternate Russia might not have become a beacon of freedom or stability. Instead, it could have been an authoritarian, militarized power aligned pragmatically with the West or standing alone as a reactionary empire in a Europe still recovering from the Great War. The world we know — shaped by Soviet communism, the Cold War, and decolonization movements inspired by anti-imperialist Marxist thought — would have looked vastly different.
In this alternate history, the 20th century might have belonged more to liberal capitalism by default, but not necessarily to democracy, and certainly not to peace.